North Atlantic tropical storms guidance

Greater accuracy

The Met Office's short-range weather model gives some of the best advice on hurricane track and landfall. It forecast the landfall of Katrina a full 12 hours ahead of any other model and track errors have decreased year-on-year.

The Met Office is unique in providing seasonal tropical storm predictions, together with short-range track and landfall projections of individual storms. These forecasts ensure consistent and accurate advice on the possible impacts and risks to businesses ranging from financial markets, insurers and the oil industry.

This year has been the most successful year in forecasting the short-term track of tropical storms. Since 1988, the Met Office has been predicting the paths of specific storms and this year the Met Office has achieved its lowest recorded track error since the forecasts began.

Julian Heming, Tropical Prediction Scientist said: "The track of the only storm to last up to five days, Hurricane Dean, was forecast to within 264 km by the Met Office's short-range model. The 5-day-ahead forecast predicted that the Yucatan Peninsula was under threat from this Category 5 hurricane. Two days before landfall, forecasts had been fine-tuned to identify the area which eventually felt the full impact of the hurricane".

Risk to business

Tropical storms represent significant risk to the insurance, energy and finance markets. In 2005, Lloyd's estimated its losses to be £2.9 billion as a result of the three biggest hurricanes in the Atlantic season alone. The impact of Hurricane Katrina on oil and gas production was hugely significant for UK and global markets.

The prospect of a warmer climate is likely to lead to an increase of intense tropical storms with higher wind speeds and heavier rain.

Principal Consultant, Climate Change Matt Huddleston said: "By the 2080s tropical cyclone winds could be 6% stronger which is the difference between a Category 4 and a Category 5 storm. Hurricanes represent one of the biggest financial risks to the UK's markets. These new forecasting techniques couldn't have come at a more critical time."

Met Office Consulting offers world-leading expertise to help you make strategic and operational business decisions about weather and climate change. We offer an understanding of the future, through risk analysis and long-range forecasting enabling better informed decisions.