|
||||||
|
21 September 2006 Prospects for this coming winter are finely balanced, long-range forecasters at the Met Office are saying today, partly due to El Niño conditions becoming established in the Pacific Ocean. There has been a shift from the early signal, issued by the Met Office in July, which suggested the winter would be milder than average and wetter than last year. The long-range forecast for Winter 2006/7 across the UK, now released, indicates near-average temperatures and an approximately even chance of wetter or drier-than-average conditions for the season as a whole. El Niño conditions are becoming established in the Pacific Ocean and this is helping to produce a winter forecast that is in the balance. Significantly, these developing influences could shift probabilities to favour a colder outlook, particularly for late Winter 2006/7. Rob Varley, Head of the Public Weather Service at the Met Office
commented: "In July, we issued a first assessment of the
winter. This was based on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
technique and indicated a mild winter. However, from September,
other forecast data becomes available, allowing us to make a further
expert judgement on how the winter is likely to play out. It's
interesting to note that the chances of a colder winter have increased
slightly in light of recent information, with a focus on the late-winter
period. We will track this possible trend and update the forecast
in coming months as necessary." Notes to editors: El Niño is a warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean which accompanies a reversal in the trade winds. It affects the weather and climate across many parts of the globe and is the largest climatic event that occurs on a regular basis anywhere on the planet.
|
||||||
