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Weather forecast verification – how accurate are Met Office forecasts?

Keeping in the forefront of supercomputing technology

The Met Office has an open and transparent policy in the verification of its forecasts.

Verification is needed to measure how we are doing against the Key Performance Targets (KPT) for forecast accuracy, as set by government. These KPTs are part of our ongoing long-term commitment to improving the accuracy of our forecasts to the public. We will do this by reaching accuracy targets set for:

  • next-day rainfall forecasts for 11 places within the UK (the nearest major towns to these places are shown on the map opposite);
  • next-day temperature forecasts (max and min) for 11 places within the UK (the nearest major towns to these places are shown on the map opposite);
  • the forecasting skill of our computer models.

The following graphs show how we are doing against the Key Performance Targets.

Map showing locations used in verification of temperature and precipitation

The table shows how we did against the Key Performance Targets for 2007/8

Measure
Target for 2007/8
Value at March 2008
Achieved/not achieved
11 cities maximum temperature
84.8%
85.5%
Achieved
11 cities minimum temperature
82.0%
83.5%
Achieved
11 cities probability of precipitation
0.403
0.433
Achieved
Numerical Weather Prediction Index
122.4
123.5
Achieved