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Met Office Hadley Centre refereed publications 2003/2004

ALEXANDER, L., 2003: Status of climate in Europe in 2002. In The Climate Assessment for 2002, A.M. Waple and J.H. Lawrimore, eds.. Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 84, S43-S45.

Allali, A., Church, J., Clarke, R.A., EYRE, J., FOLLAND, C., Gould, J.W., Haeberli, W., Harrison, S., Karl, T., Maurer, T., PARKER, D.E., Proffitt, M., Quegan, S., Simmons, A., Trenberth, K. and M. Verstraete, 2003: The Second Report on the Adequacy of the Global Observing Systems for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC. P.J. MASON, M. Manton, D.E. Harrison, A. Belward, A.R. Thomas and D. Kirk Dawson (Eds), GCOS 82 WMO/ TD 1143, WMO/IOC-UNESCO/ENEP/ICSU, Geneva, pp. 74.

ALLAN, R.P. and RINGER, M.A., 2003: Inconsistencies between satellite estimates of longwave cloud forcing and dynamical fields from reanalyses. Geophys Res Lett, 30 (9), 44.1 to 44.4 (doi:10.1029/2003GL017019).

ALLAN, R.P., RINGER, M.A. and Slingo, A., 2003: Evaluation of moisture in the Hadley Centre climate model using simulations of HIRS water vapour channel radiances. QJR Meteorol Soc, 129, 3,371-3,389.

Allen, M.R. and STOTT, P.A., 2003: Estimating signal amplitudes in optimal fingerprinting. I: Estimation theory. Clim Dyn, 21, 477-491 (doi: 10.1007/s00382-003-0313-9).

AUSTIN, J. and BUTCHART, N., 2003: Coupled chemistry-climate model simulations for the period 1980 to 2020: Ozone depletion and the start of ozone recovery. QJR Meteorol Soc, 129, 3,225-3,249.

Barker, H. et al (including CUSACK, S.), 2003: Assessing 1D atmospheric solar radiative transfer models: interpretation and handling of unresolved clouds. J Clim, 16, 2,676-2,699.

BELL, M.J. and Bahurel, P., 2003: The European contribution to GODAE. In Building the European Capacity in Operational Oceanography. Proceedings of the Third International Conference on EuroGOOS. Elsevier.

BELL, M.J., BARCIELA, R., HINES, A., MARTIN, M.J., MCCULLOCH, M.E. and STORKEY, D., 2003: The forecasting ocean assimilation model (FOAM) system. In Building the European Capacity in Operational Oceanography. Proceedings of the Third International Conference on EuroGOOS. Elsevier.

BELL, M.J., 2003: Conservation of potential vorticity on lorentz grids. Mon Weather Rev, 131, 1,498-1,501.

BETTS, R.A. and Midgley, G.F., 2004: Earth system synergisms: Observations and models. AABS, 4, Climate Change and Biodiversity, Chapter 1, 7-14, L. Hannah and T. Lovejoy, eds., Yale.

Braganza, K., Karoly, D., Hirst, T., Mann, M., STOTT, P., Stouffer, R. and TETT, S., 2002, Simple indices of global climate variability and change: Part I - Variability and correlation structure. Clim Dyn, 20, 491-502 (doi:10.1007/s00382-002-0286-0).

BUTCHART, N., SCAIFE, A.A., AUSTIN, J., Hare, S.H.E. and KNIGHT, J., 2003: Quasi-Biennial Oscillations in ozone in a coupled chemistry-climate model. J Geophys Res, 108 (D15), ACL 14.1 to ACL 14-10 (doi:10.1029/2002JD003004).

Christy, J.R., Spencer, R.W., Norris, W.B., Braswell, W.D. and PARKER, D.E., 2003: Error estimates of version 5.0 of MSU/AMSU bulk atmospheric temperatures. J Atmos and Oceanic Technol, 20, 613-629.

COLLINS, M. and Sinha, B., 2003: Predictability of decadal variations in the thermohaline circulation and climate. Geophys Res Lett, 30 (6), 39.1-39.4 (doi: 10.1029/2002GL016776).

COLLINS, W.J., DERWENT, R.G., GARNIER, B.G., JOHNSON, C.E., SANDERSON, M.G. and STEVENSON, D.S., 2003: Effect of stratosphere-troposphere exchange on the future tropospheric ozone trend. J Geophys Res, 108 (D12), STA 13.1 to STA13.10 (doi:10.1029/2002JD002617).

COLMAN, A.W and DAVEY, M.K., 2003: Statistical prediction of global sea-surface temperature anomalies. Int J Climatol, 23, 1,677-1,697.

Cowling, S.A., BETTS, R.A., COX, P.M., Ettwein, V.J., JONES, C.D., Maslin, M.A. and SPALL, S.A., 2004: Contrasting simulated past and future responses of the Amazonian forest to atmospheric change. Philos Trans R Soc London, A359, 539-547 (doi:10.1098/rstb.2003.1427).

Cristofanelli, P., Bonasoni, P., COLLINS, W., Feichter, J., Forster, C., James, P., Kentarchos, P., Kubik, W., Land, C., Meloen, J., Roelofs, G.J., Sigmund, P., Sprenger, M., Schnabel, C., Stohl, A., Tobler, L., Tositti, L., Tricjl, T. and Zanis, P., 2003: Stratosphere-to-troposphere transport: A model and method evaluations. J Geophys Res, 108 (D12), STA 10.1 to STA 10.23 (doi:10.1029/2002JD002600).

DERWENT, R.G., Jenkin, M.E., Saunders, S.M., Pilling, M.J., Simmonds, P.G., Passant, N.R., Dollard, G.J., Dumitrean, P. and Kent, A., 2003: Photochemical ozone formation in north west Europe and its control. Atmos Environ, 37, 1,983-1,991.

DERWENT, R.G., STEVENSON, D.S., COLLINS, W.J. and JOHNSON, C.E., 2003: Intercontinental transport and the origins of the ozone observed at surface sites in Europe. Atmos Environ, 38, 1,891-1,901.

DONG, B.W. and Sutton, R.T., 2003: Variability of Atlantic ocean heat transport and its effect on the atmosphere. Annals of Geophys, 46, 87-97.

Easterling, D.R., ALEXANDER, L.V., Mokssit, A. and Detemmerman, V., 2003: Workshop Summary: CCl/CLIVAR Workshop to develop Priority Climate Indices for Africa. Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 84, 1,403-1,407.

ESSERY, R., 2003: Aggregated and distributed modelling of the snow cover for a high-latitude basin. Global and Planet Change, 38, 115-120.

ESSERY R.L.H., BEST M.J., BETTS R.A., COX P.M. and Taylor C.M., 2003: Explicit representation of sub-grid heterogeneity in a GCM land-surface scheme. J Hydrometorol, 4, 530-543.

ESSERY, R. and Clark, D., 2003: Developments in the MOSES 2 land-surface model for PILPS 2e. Global and Planet Change, 38, 161-164.

ESSERY, R., Pomeroy, J., Parvianen, J. and Storck, P., 2003: Sublimation of snow from coniferous forests in a climate model. J Clim, 16, 1,855-1,864.

Finch, J.W. and BEST, M., 2004: The accuracy of downward short- and long-wave radiation at the earth's surface calculated using simple models. Meteorol Appl, 11, 33-39.

FOLLAND, C., Salinger, M., Jiang, N. and RAYNER, N., 2003: Trends and variations in South Pacific island and ocean surface temperature. J Clim, 16, 2,859-2,874.

Frankignoul, C., Kestenare, E., Botzet, M., Carril, A. F., Drange, H., PARDAENS, A., Terray, L. and Sutton, R., 2004: An intercomparison between the surface heat flux feedback in five coupled models, COADS and the NCEP reanalysis. Clim Dyn, 22, 373-388 (doi:10.1007/s00382-003-0388-3).

Friedlingstein, P., Dufresne, J.L., COX, P.M. and Rayner, P., 2003: How positive is the feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle? Tellus B, 55B, 692-700.

Gauss, M., Myhre, G., Pitari, G., Prather, M.J., Isaksen, I.S.A., Berntsen, T.K., Brasseur, G.P., Dentener, F.J., DERWENT, R.G., Hauglustaine, D.A., Horowitz, L.W., Jacob, D.J., Johnson, M., Law, K.S., Mickley, L.J., Muller, J.F., Plantevin, P.H., Pyle, J.A., Rogers, H.L., STEVENSON, D.S., Sundet, J.K., van Weele, M. and Wild, O., 2003: Radiative forcing in the 21st century due to ozone changes in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere. J Geophys Res, 108 (D9), ACH 15.1 to ACH 15.21 (doi:10.1029/200sJD002624).

GEDNEY, N. and COX, P.M., 2003: The sensitivity of global climate model simulations to the representation of soil moisture heterogeneity. J Hydrometeorol, 4, 1,265-1,275.

Gillett, N.P., Zwiers, F.W., Weaver, A.J. and STOTT, P.A., 2003: Detection of human influence on sea level pressure. Nature, 422, 292-294 (doi: 10.1038/nature01487).

GLOSTER, J. and Alexandersen, S., 2004: New directions: Airborne transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus. Atmos Environ, 38, 503-505.

GLOSTER, J., CHAMPION, H.J., RYALL, D.B. and Brown, A.R., 2004a: The 2001 UK epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease - a meteorological review: Part 1. Weather, 59, 8-11.

GLOSTER, J., CHAMPION, H.J., RYALL, D.B. and Brown, A.R., 2004b: The 2001 UK epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease - a meteorological review: Part 2. Weather, 59, 43-45.

GLOSTER, J., CHAMPION, H.J., Sørensen, J.H., Mikkelsen, T., RYALL, D.B., Astrup, P., Alexandersen, S. and Donaldson, A.I., 2003: Airborne transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus from Burnside Farm, Heddon-on-the-Wall, Northumberland during the 2001 epidemic in the United Kingdom. Vet Rec, 152, 525-533.

GREGORY, J.M., Saenko, O.A. and Weaver, A.J., 2003: The role of the Atlantic freshwater balance in the hysteresis of the meridional overturning circulation. Clim Dyn, 21, 707-717 (doi:10.1007/s00382-003-0359-8).

GREGORY, J.M., INGRAM, W.J., Palmer, M.A., JONES, G.S., STOTT, P.A., THORPE, R.B., LOWE, J.A., JOHNS, T.C. and WILLIAMS, K.D., 2004: A new method for diagnosing radiative forcing and climate sensitivity. Geophys Res Lett, 31, L03205, 1-4 (doi:10.1029/2003gl018747).

Hall, R., Huntingford, C., Harding, R., Lloyd, C. and COX, P., 2003: An improved description of soil hydraulic and thermal properties of arctic peatland for use in a GCM. Hyd Proc, 17, 2,611-2,628.

Harman, I.N., BEST, M.J. and Belcher, S.E., 2004: Radiative exchange in an urban street canyon. Boundary-Layer Meteorol, 110, 301-316.

Harris, P.P, Huntingford, C., COX, P.M., Gash, J.H.C. and Malhi, Y., 2003. Effect of soil moisture on canopy conductance of Amazonian rainforest. Agric and Forest Meteorol, 122 , 215-227.

Horinouchi, T., Pawson, S., Shibata, K., Langematz, U., Manzini, E., Giorgetta, M.A., Sassi, F., Wilson, R.J., Hamilton, K.P., De Grandpre, J. and SCAIFE, A.A., 2003: Tropical cumulus convection and upward propagating gravity waves in middle atmosphere GCMs. J Atmos Sci, 60, 2,765-2,782.

HORTON, E.B., PARKER, D.E. and ALEXANDER, L.V., 2003: Global and regional climate in 2002. Weather, 58, 324-336.

JONES, C., COX, P. and Huntingford, C., 2003: Uncertainty in climate-carbon cycle projections associated with the sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature. Tellus B, 55B, 642-648.

JONES, C.D., 2003: A fast ocean GCM without flux adjustments. J Atmos and Oceanic Technol, 20, 1,857-1,868.

JONES, C.D., COX, P.M., ESSERY, R.L.H., ROBERTS, D.L. and WOODAGE, M.J., 2003: Strong carbon cycle feedbacks in a climate model with interactive CO2 and sulphate aerosols. Geophys Res Lett, 30 (9), 32.1 to 32.4 (doi: 10.1029/2003GL016867).

JONES, G.S., TETT, S.F.B. and STOTT, P.A., 2003: Causes of atmospheric temperature change 1960-2000: a combined attribution analysis. Geophys Res Lett, 30 (5), 32-1 to 32-4 (doi:10.1029/2002GL016377).

Karoly, D.J., Braganza, K., STOTT, P.A., Arblaster, J., Meehl, G., Broccoli, A. and Dixon, K.W., 2003: Detection of a human influence on North American climate. Science, 302, 1,200-1,203 (doi: 10.1126/science.1089159).

Kiktev, D., SEXTON, D.M.H., ALEXANDER, L. and FOLLAND, C.K., 2003: Comparison of modeled and observed trends in indices of daily climate extremes. J Clim, 16, 3,560-3,571.

Klein Tank, A.M.G., De, U.S., Detemmerman, V., Fritsch, J.M., Grabs, W., Higgins, W., Lawrimore, J., Mokssit, A., O'Lenic, E.A., Palacios, W.E., PARKER, D.E., Ryabinin, V., Stefanski, R. and Watkins, A., 2003: The Global Climate System Review, June 1996-December 2001, World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme, WMO-No. 950.

Laxon, S., Peacock, N. and SMITH, D., 2003: High interannual variability of ice thickness in the Arctic region. Nature, 425, 947-950.

Luo, L., et al (including COX P.M. and GEDNEY, N.), 2003: Effects of frozen soil on soil temperature, spring infiltration, and runoff: Results from the PILPS 2(d) experiment at Valdai. Russia J Hydrometeorol, 4, 334-351.

MANNING, A.J., RYALL, D.B., DERWENT, R.G., Simmonds, P.G. and O'Doherty, S., 2003: Estimating European emissions of ozone-depleting and greenhouse gases using observations and a modeling back-attribution technique. J Geophys Res, 108 (D14), ACH 3.1 to ACH 3.12 (doi:10.1029/2002JD002312).

Marland, G., Pielke, R.A., Apps, M., Avissar, R., BETTS, R.A., Davis, K.J., Frumhoff, P.C., Jackson, S.T., Joyce, L., Kauppi, P., Katzenberger, J., MacDicken, K.G., Neilson, R., Niles, J.O., Dev dutta S., Niyogi, D., Norby, R.J., Pena, N., Sampson, N. and Xue, Y., 2003: The climatic impacts of land surface change and carbon management, and the implications for climate-change mitigation policy. Clim Policy, 3, 149-157.

MASON, P.J., Manton, M., Harrison, D.E., Belward, A., Thomas, A.R., Dawson, D.K., Allali, A., Church, J., Clarke, R.A., Eyre, J., FOLLAND, C.K., Gould, W.J., Haeberli, W., Harrison, S., Karl, T.R., Maurer, T., PARKER, D.E., Proffitt, M., Quegan, S., Simmons, A., Trenberth, K.E. and Verstraete, M., 2003: The Second Report on the Adequacy of the Global Observing Systems for Climate in support of the UNFCCC. Global Climate Observing System GCOS-82, WMO/TD No. 1143.

Meissner K.J., Weaver A.J., Matthews H.D. and COX P.M., 2003: The role of land-surface dynamics in glacial inception: a study with the UVic Earth System Model. Clim Dyn, 21 , 515-537.

Meloen, J.P., Siegmund, P., van Velthoven, P., Kelder, H., Sprenger, M., Wernli, H., Kentarchos, A., Roelofs, G., Feicher, J., Land, C., Forster, C., James, P., Stohl, A., COLLINS, W. and Cristofanelli, P., 2003: Stratosphere-troposphere exchange: A model and method intercomparison. J Geophys Res, 108 (D12), STA 11.1 to STA 11.17 (doi:10.1029/2002JD002274).

Mikkelsen, T., Alexandersen, S., Astrup, P., CHAMPION, H.J., Donaldson, A.I., Dunkerley, F.N., GLOSTER, J., Sørensen, J.H. and Thykier-Nielsen, S., 2003: Investigation of airborne foot-and-mouth disease virus transmission during low-wind conditions in the early phase of the UK 2001 epidemic. Atmos Chem and Phys, 3, 2,101-2,110.

PARDAENS, A.K., BANKS, H.T., GREGORY, J.M. and Rowntree, P.R., 2003: Freshwater transports in HadCM3. Clim Dyn, 21, 177-195.

Prather, M., Gauss, M., Berntsen, T., Isaksen, I., Sundet, J., Bey, I., Brasseur, G., Dentener, F., DERWENT, R., STEVENSON, D., Grenfell, L., Hauglustaine, D., Horowitz, L., Jacob, D., Mickley, L., Lawrence, M., von Kuhlmann, R., Muller, J.F., Pitari, G., Rogers, H., Johnson, M., Pyle, J., Law, K., van Weele, M. and Wild, O., 2003: Fresh air in the 21st century? Geophys Res Lett, 30(2), 72.1 to 72.4 (doi:10.1029/2002GL016285).

RAYNER, N.A., PARKER, D.E., HORTON, E.B., FOLLAND, C.K., ALEXANDER, L.V., ROWELL, D.P., Kent, E.C. and Kaplan, A., 2003: Global analyses of SST, sea ice and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res, 108 (D14), ACL 2.1 to ACL 2.29 (doi:10.1029/2002JD002670).

ROBERTS, M.J., BANKS, H., GEDNEY, N., GREGORY, J., HILL, R., MULLERWORTH, S., PARDAENS, A., RICKARD, G., THORPE, R. and WOOD, R., 2004: Impact of an eddy-permitting ocean resolution on control and climate change simulations with a global coupled GCM. J Clim, 17, 3-20.

Roelofs, G.J., Kentarchos, A.S., Trickl, T., Stohl, A., COLLINS, W.J., Crowther, R.A., Hauglustaine, D., Klonecki, A., Law, K.S., Lawrence, M.G., von Kuhlmann, R. and van Weele, M., 2003: Intercomparison of tropospheric ozone models: Ozone transport in a complex tropopause folding event. J Geophys Res, 108 (D12), STA 14.1 to STA 14.13 (doi:10.1029/2003JD003462).

Rosell-Mele, A., Bard, E., Emeis, K.-C., Grieger, B., HEWITT, C.D., Mueller, P.J. and Schneider, R.R., 2004: Sea surface temperature anomalies in the oceans at the LGM estimated from the alkenone-UK'37 index: comparison with GCMs. Geophys Res Lett, 31(3), 1-4 ( doi:10.1029/2003GL018151).

Saenko, O.A., Weaver, A.J. and GREGORY, J.M., 2003: On the link between the two modes of the ocean thermohaline circulation and the formation of global-scale water masses. J Clim, 16, 2797-2801.

SANDERSON, M.G., COLLINS, W.J., DERWENT, R.G. and JOHNSON, C.E., 2003: Simulation of global hydrogen levels using a Lagrangian three-dimensional model. J Atmos Chem, 46, 15-28.

SANDERSON, M.G., JONES, C.D., COLLINS, W.J., JOHNSON, C.E. and DERWENT, R.G., 2003: Effect of climate change on isoprene emissions and surface ozone levels. Geophys Res Lett, 30, ASC 4.1 to ASC 4.4 (doi: 10.1029/2003GL017642).

SCAIFE, A.A., BUTCHART, N., JACKSON, D. and SWINBANK, R., 2003: Can changes in ENSO activity help to explain increasing stratospheric water vapour? Geophys Res Lett, 30 (17), ASC 2.1 to ASC 2.4 (doi:10.1029/2003GL017591).

SEXTON, D.M.H., Grubb, H., Shine, K.P. and FOLLAND, C.K., 2003: Design and analysis of climate model experiments for the efficient estimation of anthropogenic signals. J Clim, 16, 1,320-1,336.

Shine, K.P., Bourqui, M.S., Forster, P.M. de F., Hare, S.H.E., Langematz, U., Brasesicke, P., Crewe, V., Ponater, M., Schnadt, C., Smith, C.A., Haigh, J.D., AUSTIN, J., BUTCHART, N., Shindell, D.T., Randel, W.J., Nagashima, T., Portmann, R.W., Solomon, S., Seidel, D.J., Lanzante, J., Klein, S., Ramaswamy, V. and Schwarzkopf, M.D., 2003: A comparison of model-simulated trends in stratospheric temperatures. QJR Meteorol Soc, 129, 1,565-1,588.

Steffen, W., Andreae, M.O., Bolin, B., COX, P.M., Crutzen, P.J., Cubasch, U., Held, H., Nakicenovic, N., Scholes, R.J., Talaue-McManus, L. and Turner, B.L. II, 2004. Abrupt changes: the Achilles' heels of the Earth Sys Environ, 46, 8-21.

STEVENSON, D.S., JOHNSON, C.E., COLLINS, W.J. and DERWENT, R.G., 2003: Atmospheric impact of the 1783-1784 Laki eruption. Part I: chemistry modelling. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 3, 487-507.

Stohl, A., Bonasoni, P., Cristofanelli, P., COLLINS, W., Feichter, J., Frank, A., Forster, C., Gerasopolous, E., Gaggeler, H., James, P., Kentarchos, T., Kromp-Kolb, H., Kruger, B., Land, C., Meloen, J., Papayannis, A., Priller, A., Seibert, P., Sprenger, M., Roelofs, G.J., Scheel, H.E., Schnabel, C., Siegmund, P., Tobler, L., Trickl, T., Wernli, H., Wirth, V., Zanis, P. and Zerefos, C., 2003: Stratosphere-to-troposphere exchange: A review, and what we have learned from staccato. J Geophys Res, 108 (D12), STA 1.1 to STA 1.15 (doi10.1029/2002JD002490).

STOTT, P.A., 2003: Attribution of regional-scale temperature changes to anthropogenic and natural causes. Geophys Res Lett, 30 (14), CLM 2.1 to CLM 2.4 (doi:10.1029/2003GL017324).

STOTT, P.A., Allen, M.R. and JONES, G.S., 2003: Estimating signal amplitudes in optimal fingerprinting. Part II: application to general circulation models. Clim Dyn, 21, 493-500 (doi:10.1007/s00382-002-0300-6).

STOTT, P.A., JONES, G.S. and MITCHELL, J.F.B., 2003: Do models underestimate the solar contribution to recent climate change? J Clim, 16, 4,079-4,093.

THORNE, P.W., JONES, P.D., TETT, S.F.B., ALLEN, M.R., PARKER, D.E., STOTT, P.A., JONES, G.S., OSBORN, T.J. and DAVIES, T.D., 2003: Probable causes of late 20th century tropospheric temperature trends. Clim Dyn, 21, 573-591.

TONIAZZO, T., GREGORY, J.M. and Huybrechts, P., 2004: Climatic impact of a Greenland deglaciation and its possible irreversibility. J Clim, 17, 21-33.

WILLIAMS, K.D., RINGER, M.A. and SENIOR, C.A., 2003: Evaluating the cloud response to climate change and current climate variability. Clim Dyn, 20, 705-721 (doi:10.1007/s00382-002-0303-3).

WOOD, R.A., VELLINGA, M. and THORPE, R.B., 2003: Global warming and thermohaline circulation stability. Philos Trans R Soc London, A361, 1,961-1,975.

Woodworth, P.L. and GREGORY, J.M., 2003: Benefits of GRACE and GOCE to sea level studies. Space Sci Rev, 108, 307-317.

WU, P. and RODWELL, M., 2004: Gulf Stream forcing of the winter north Atlantic oscillation. Atmos Sci Lett, 5, 57-64 (doi:10.1016/j.atmoscilet.2003.12.002).

WU, P., WOOD, R. and STOTT, P., 2004: Does the recent freshening trend in the north Atlantic indicate a weakening thermohaline circulation? Geophys Res Lett, 31, L02301, 1-4 (doi:10.1029/2003GL018584).