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Met Office Hadley Centre refereed publications 2004/2005

ALEXANDER, L.V. and PARKER, D.E., 2004: Status of climate in Europe in 2003. Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 85, S1-S72.

ALLAN, R.J., 2003: El Nino. In Ecology: An Australian perspective, Attiwell, P. and Wilson, B., (eds). Oxford University Press, Australia.

ALLAN, R.J., Reason, C.J.C., Lindesay J.A. and ANSELL T.J., 2003: 'Protracted' ENSO episodes and their impacts in the Indian Ocean region. Deep-Sea Res II, 50(12-13), 2,331-2,347.

Allan, R.P., RINGER, M.A., Pamment, J.A. and Slingo, A., 2004: Simulation of the Earth's radiation budget by the ECMWF 40-year reanalysis (ERA40). J Geophys Res, 109, D18107, doi:10.1029/2004JD004816.

BELL, M.J., Martin, M.J. and Nichols, N.K., 2004: Assimilation of data into an ocean model with systematic errors near the equator. QJR Meteorol Soc, 130 (598), 873-893, doi:10.1256/qj.02.109.

BEST, M.J., 2005: Representing urban areas in numerical weather prediction models. Boundary-Layer Meteorol, 114(1): 91-109, doi:10.1007/s10546-004-4834-5.

BEST, M.J., Beljaars, A., Polcher, J. and Viterbo, P., 2004: A proposed structure for coupling tiled land-surfaces with the planetary boundary layer. J Hydrometeorol, 5(6), 1,271-1,278, doi:10.1175/JHM-382.1.

BEST,  M.J.,  COX,  P.M. and Warrilow. D., 2005: Determining the optimal soil temperature scheme for atmospheric modelling applications. Boundary-Layer Meteorol, 114(1),111-142, doi:10.1007/s10546-004-5075-3.

BETTS, R.A., 2004: Global vegetation and climate: self-beneficial effects, climate forcings and climate feedbacks. In Bountron, C. (ed), J Phys IV (Proceedings), 121, (EDP Sciences, Les Ulis, France), 37-60, doi:10.1051/jp4:2004121002.

BETTS, R.A., COX, P.M., COLLINS, M., Harris, P.P., Huntingford, C. and JONES, C.D., 2004: The role of ecosystem-atmosphere interactions in simulated Amazonian precipitation decrease and forest dieback under global climate warming. Theor Appl Climatol, 78(1-3), 157-175, doi:1007/500704-004-0050-y.

BETTS, R.A. and Shugart. H., 2005: Dynamic ecosytem and earth system models. In Climate Change and Biodiversity, Lovejoy. T. and  Hannah, L. (eds). Yale.

Brabson, B.B., Lister, D.H., Jones, P.D. and PALUTIKOF, J.P., 2005: Soil moisture and predicted spells of extreme temperatures in Britain. J Geophys Res, 110(D5), D05104, doi:10.1029/2004JD005156.

Braconnot, P., Harrison, S.P., Joussaume, S., HEWITT, C.D., Kithoh, A., Kutzbach, J.E., Liu, Z., Otto-Bliesner, B., Syktus, J. and Weber, N., 2004: Evaluation of PMIP coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations of the mid-Holocene. In Past Climate Variability through Europe and Africa, Battarbee, R.W., Gasse, F. and Stickley, C.E. (eds). Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Braganza, K., Karoly, D.J., Hirst, A.C., STOTT, P., Stouffer, R.J. and TETT, S.F., 2004: Simple indices of global climate variability and change: Part II: attribution of climate change during the 20th century. Clim Dyn, 22(8), 823-838, doi:10.1007/s00382-004-0413-1.

Brown, D.E., Nichols, N.K. and BELL, M.J., 2004: Preconditioners for inhomogeneous anisotropic problems in spherical geometry. Int J Numer Meth Fluids, 47, 1,213-1,219, doi:10.1002/fld.889.

Claussen, M., COX, P.M., Zeng, X., Viterbo, P., Beljaars, A.C.M., BETTS, R.A., Bolle, H-J., Chase, T. and Koster, R., 2004: The global climate. In Vegetation, Water, Humans and the Climate: A New Perspective on an Interactive System, Kabat, P., Claussen, M., Dirmeyer, P.A., Gash, J.H.C., Guenni, L. Bravo de., Meybeck, M., Pielke Sr., R., Vörösmarty, C.J., Hutjes, R.W.A. and Lütkemeier, S., (eds.). Springer Verlag, Berlin.

COLLINS, M., 2004: Predictions of Climate following Volcanic Eruptions. In Volcanism and the Earth's Atmosphere, Robock, A. and Oppenheimer, C. (eds). American Geophysical Union).

COLLINS, M., 2005: El Nino- or La Nina-like climate change? Clim Dyn, 24(1), 89-104, doi:10.1007/s00382-004-0478-x.

Connolley, W.M., GREGORY, J.M., Hunke, E. and MCLAREN, A.J., 2004: On the consistent scaling of terms in the sea ice dynamics equation. J Phys Oceanogr, 34(7), 1,776-1,780, doi:10.1175/1520-0485(2004)034<1776:OTCSOT>2.0.CO;2.

COX, P.M., BETTS, R.A., COLLINS, M., Harris, P.P., Huntingford, C. and JONES, C.D., 2004: Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st Century. Theor Appl Climatol, 78, 137-156,  doi:10.007/s00704-004-0049-4.

CRUCIFIX, M., BETTS, R.A. and COX, P.M., 2005: Vegetation and climate variability: a GCM modelling study. Clim Dyn, 24(5), 457-467, doi:10.1007/s00382-004-0504-z.

CRUCIFIX, M., BETTS, R.A. and HEWITT, C.D., 2005: Pre-industrial-potential and Last Glacial Maximum global vegetation simulated with a coupled climate-biosphere model: diagnosis of bioclimatic relationships. Global and Planetary Change, 45, 295-312, doi:10.1016/j.gloplach.2004.10.001.

CRUCIFIX, M., Loutre, M.F. and Berger, A., 2005: Commentary on 'The anthropogenic greenhouse era began thousands of years ago'. Clim Change, 69, 419-426, doi:10.1007/s10584-005-7278-0.

D'Arrigo, R.D., Cook, E.R., Wilson, R.J., ALLAN, R.J. and Mann, M.E., 2005: On the variability of ENSO over the past six centuries. Geophys Res Lett, 32(3), L03711, doi:10.1029/2004GL022055.

Doney, S.C., et al (28 authors including TOTTERDELL, I.J.) 2004: Evaluating global ocean carbon models: the importance of realistic physics. Global Biogeochem Cycles, doi:10.1029/2003GB002150.

FALLOON, P.D., Powlson, D.S. and Smith, P., 2004: Managing field margins for biodiversity and carbon sequestration: a UK case study. Soil Use and Management, 20, 240-247, doi:10.1079/SUM2004236.

FOLLAND, C.K. and COLMAN, A., 2004: Contributing authors to: Pasture degradation and recovery in Australia's Rangelands: Learning from history. (Queensland Department of Natural Resources, Mines and Energy, Indooroopilly, Queensland, and Australian Greenhouse Office).

FOLLAND, C.K., GRIGGS, D.J. and Houghton, J.T., 2004: The Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. Weather, 59(11), 317-323, doi:10.1256/wea.121.04.

Forster, P.M.D. and COLLINS, M., 2004: Quantifying the water vapour feedback associated with post-Pinatubo global cooling. Clim Dyn, 23(2), 207-214, doi:10.1007/s00382-004-0431-z.

Galmarini, S. (23 authors includes CHAMPION, H. and MANNING, A.) 2004: Ensemble dispersion forecasting - Part II: application and evaluation. Atmos Environ, 38(28), 4,619-4,632, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2004.05.031.

Galmarini, S. (36 authors includes CHAMPION, H. and  MANNING, A.) 2004: Ensemble dispersion forecasting - Part I: concept, approach and indicators. Atmos Environ, 38(28), 4,607-4,617, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2004.05.030.

Galmarini, S. (36 authors includes, CHAMPION, H. and MANNING, A.)  2004: Can the confidence in long range atmospheric transport models be increased? The pan-European experience of ENSEMBLE. Radiation Protection Dosimetry, 109, 19-24.

GEDNEY, N. COX, P.M. and Huntingford, C., 2004: Climate feedback from wetland methane emissions. Geophys Res Lett, 31, L20503, doi:10.1029/2004GL020919.

Gillett, N.P., Wehner, M.F., TETT, S.F.B. and Weaver, A.J., 2004: Testing the linearity of the response to combined greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol forcing. Geophys Res Lett, 31, L14201, doi:10.1029/2004GL020111.

GRAHAM, R.J., GORDON, M., MCLEAN, P.J., INESON, S., HUDDLESTON, M.R., DAVEY, M.K., BROOKSHAW, A. and Barnes, R.T.H., 2005: A performance comparison of coupled and uncoupled versions of the Met Office seasonal prediction general circulation model. Tellus A, 57(3), 320-339, doi:0.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00116.x.

GREGORY, J.M., BANKS, H.T., STOTT, P.A., LOWE, J.A. and PALMER, M.D., 2004: Simulated and observed decadal variability in ocean heat content. Geophys Res Lett, 31, L15312, doi:10.1029/2004GL020258.

GREGORY, J.M., Huybrechts, P. and Raper, S.C.B., 2004: Threatened loss of the Greenland ice-sheet. Nature, 428(6983) 616, doi:10.1038/428616a.

Guilyardi, E., Gualdi, S., Slingo, J., Navarra, A., Delecluse, P., Cole, J., Madec, G., ROBERTS, M., Latif, M. and Terray, L., 2004: Representing El Nino in coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs: The dominant role of the atmospheric component. J Clim, 17(24), 4,623-4,629, doi:10.1175/JCLI-3260.1.

HEWITT, C.D. and GRIGGS, D.J., 2004: Ensembles-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts. EOS, Trans Am Geophys Union, 85, 566.

Higgins, P.A.T. and VELLINGA, M., 2004: Ecosystem responses to abrupt climate change: teleconnections, scale and the hydrological cycle. Climatic Change, 64(1-2), 127-142, doi:10.1023/B:CLIM.0000024672.41571.ba.

HUDDLESTON, M.R., BELL, M.J., MARTIN, M.J. and Nichols, N.K., 2004: Assessment of wind stress errors using bias corrected ocean data assimilation. QJR Meteorol Soc, (A), 130 (598), 853-871, doi:10.1256/qj.02.213.

Huybrechts, P., GREGORY, J., Janssens, I. and Wild, M., 2004: Modelling Antarctic and Greenland volume changes during the 20th and 21st centuries forced by GCM time slice integrations. Global and Planetary Change, 42(1-4), 83-105, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2003.11.011   

JONES, A.R., 2004: Atmospheric dispersion modelling at the Met Office. Weather, 59 (11), 311-316, doi:10.1256/wea.106.04.

JONES, C.D., McConnell, C.L., Coleman, K., COX, P.M., FALLOON, P., Jenkinson, D.S. and Powlson, D.S., 2005: Global climate change and soil carbon stocks; predictions from two contrasting models for the turnover of organic carbon in soil. Global Change Biol, 11, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2004.00885.x.

Manney, G.L., Allen, D.R., Sabutis, J.L., Lahoz, W.A., SCAIFE, A.A., SWINBANK,  R., Randall, C.E., Pawson, S., Naujokat, B. and O'Neill, A., 2005: Simulations of dynamics and transport during the September 2002 Antarctic major warming. J Atmos Sci, 62(3), 690-707, doi:10.1175/JAS-3313.1.

Mathieu, P.P., Sutton, R.T., DONG, B. and COLLINS, M., 2004: Predictability of winter climate over the North Atlantic European region during ENSO. J. Clim, 17(10), 1,953-1,974, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1953:POWCOT>2.0.CO;2.

MCCARTHY, M.P. and Toumi, R., 2004: Observed interannual variability of tropical troposphere relative humidity. J Clim, 17(16), 3,181-3,191, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<3181:OIVOTT>2.0.CO;2.

MCCULLOCH, M.E., Alves, J.O.S. and BELL, M.J., 2004: Modelling shallow mixed layers in the northeast Atlantic. J Mar Sys, 52(1-4)107-119, doi:101016/j.jmarsys.2004.03.001.

Meinke, H., de Voil, P., Hammer, G.L., Power, S., ALLAN, R., Stone, R.C., FOLLAND, C. and Potgeiter, A., 2005: Rainfall variability at decadal and longer time scale: signal or noise? J. Clim, 18(1),  89-96, doi:10.1175/JCLI-3263.1.

MORRISON, N.L. and WEBSTER, H.N., 2005: An assessment of turbulence profiles in rural and urban environments using local measurements and numerical weather prediction results. Boundary-Layer Meteorol, 115(2),  223-239, doi:10.1007/s10546-004-4422-8.

MURPHY, J.M., SEXTON, D.M.H., BARNETT, D.N., JONES, G.S., WEBB, M.J., COLLINS, M. and Stainforth, D.A., 2004: Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations. Nature, 430 (7001), 768-772, doi:10.1038/nature02771.

Palmer, T.N. (25 authors includes DAVEY, M.) 2004: Development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to inter-annual prediction. Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 85(6), 853-872, doi:10.1175/BAMS-85-12-1863.

PARKER, D.E., 2004: Large-scale warming is not urban. Nature, 432 (7015), 290, doi:10.1038/432290a

PARKER, D.E., ALEXANDER, L.V. and KENNEDY, J., 2004: Global and regional climate in 2003. Weather, 59(6), 145-152, doi:10.1256/wea.66.04.

PARKER, D.E., Kent, E.C., Woodruff, S.D., Dehenauw, D., Harrison, D.E., Manabe, T., Mietus, M., Swail, V. and Worley, S., 2004: Second JCOMM workshop on advances in marine climatology (CLIMAR-II). WMO Bull, 53, 157-159.

Renssen, H., Braconnot, P., TETT, S.F.B., Storch, H. von and Weber, S.L., 2004: Recent developments in Holocene climate modelling. In Past climate variability through Europe and Africa, Battarbee, R.W., Gasse, F. and Stickley, C.E. (eds). Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht.

RINGER, M.A. and ALLAN, R.P., 2004: Evaluating climate model simulations of tropical cloud. Tellus A, 56(4), 308-327, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2004.00061.x.

ROBERTS, D.L. and JONES, A., 2004: Climate sensitivity to black carbon aerosol from fossil fuel combustion. J Geophys Res, 109(D16), D16202, doi:10.1029/2004jd004676.

SCAIFE, A.A., Jackson, D.R., SWINBANK, R., BUTCHART, N., Thornton, H., Keil  M. and Henderson, L., 2005. Stratospheric  vacillations and the major warming over Antarctica in 2002. J Atmos Sci, 62(3), 629-639, doi:10.1175/JAS-3334.1.

Schmittner, A. (20 authors includes CRUCIFIX, M.) 2004: Global impact of the Panamian seaway closure. EOS, Trans Am Geophys Union, 85, 526.

Seidel, D.J., Angell, J.K., Christy, J., Free, M., Klein, S.A., Lanzante, J.R., Mears, C., PARKER, D.E., Schabel, M., Spencer, R., Sterin, A., THORNE, P. and Wentz, F., 2004: Uncertainty in signals of large-scale climate variations in radiosonde and satellite upper-air temperature datasets. J Clim, 17(11), 2,225-2,240, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2225:UISOLC>2.0.CO;2.

Spencer, H., Slingo, J.M. and DAVEY, M.K., 2004: Seasonal predictability of ENSO teleconnections: the role of the remote ocean response. Clim Dyn, 22(5), 511-526, doi:10.1007/s00382-004-0393-1.

Stainforth, D.A., Aina, T., Christensen, C., COLLINS, M., Frame, D.J., Kettleborough, J.A., Knight, S.,  Martin, A., MURPHY, J.,  Piani, C., SEXTON, D.,  Smith, L.A., Spicer, R.A., Thorpe, A.J. and Allen, M.R.,  2005: Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature, 433 (7024), 403-406, doi:10.1038/nature03301.

STOTT, P.A., Stone, D.A. and Allen, M.R., 2004: Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature, 432 (7017), 610-614, doi:10.1038/nature03089.

Tang, Y.M. and ROBERTS, M.J., 2005: The impact of a bottom boundary layer scheme on the North Atlantic Ocean in a global coupled climate model. J Phys Oceanogr, 35(2), 202-217, doi:10.1175/JPO-2671.1.

TETT, S. and THORNE, P., 2004: Atmospheric science: Tropospheric temperature series from satellites.  Nature, 432 (7017), doi:10.1038/nature03208.

TETT, S. and THORNE, P., 2004: Comment on tropospheric temperature series from satellites. Nature, 432 (7017), doi:10.1038/nature03210.

THOMSON, D.J. and DEVENISH, B.J., 2005: Particle pair separation in kinematic simulations. J Fluid Mech, 526, 277-302, doi:10.1017/50022112004002915.

THORPE, R.B., 2005: The impact of changes in atmospheric and land surface physics on the thermohaline circulation response to anthropogenic forcing in HadCM2 and HadCM3. Clim Dyn, 24(5), 449-456, doi:10.1007/s00382-004-0493-y.

THORPE, R.B., WOOD, R.A. and MITCHELL, J.F.B., 2004: Sensitivity of the modelled thermohaline circulation to the parameterisation of mixing across the Greenland Scotland ridge. Ocean Modelling, 7(3-4),  259-268, doi:10.1016/51463-5003(03)00043-x.

Valdes, P.J., Beerling, D.J. and JOHNSON, C.E., 2005: The ice age methane budget. Geophys Res Lett, 32, L02704, doi:10.1029/2004GL021004.

VELLINGA, M. and WOOD, R.A., 2004: Timely detection of anthropogenic change in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Geophys Res Lett, 31(14), L14203, doi:10.1029/2004GL020306.

VELLINGA, M. and WU, P., 2004: Low-latitude fresh water influence on centennial variability of the thermohaline circulation. J Clim, 17(23), 4,498-4,511, doi:10.1175/3219.1.

von Storch, H., Zorita, E., Jones, J.M., Dimitriev, Y., González-Rouco, F. and TETT, S.F.B., 2004: Reconstructing past climate from noisy data. Science, 306 (5696), 679-682, doi:10.1126/science.1096109

White, N.J., Church, J.A. and GREGORY, J.M., 2005: Coastal and global averaged sea level rise for 1950 to 2000. Geophys Res Lett, 31(1), L01601, doi:10.1029/2004GL021391.

WU, P., WOOD, R. and STOTT, P., 2005: Human influence on increasing Arctic river discharges. Geophys Res Lett, 32(2),  L02703, doi:10.1029/2004GL021570.