1. Tropical cyclone activity
1.1 Tropical cyclones ending during the month
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Basin name abbreviations:-
NWP : North-West Pacific (west of 180°E)
NEP : North-East Pacific (east of 180°E)
NAT : North Atlantic
NI : North Indian (west of Malay Peninsula)
SWI : South-West Indian (west of 90°E)
AUS : Australian (east of 90°E)
1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1
minute (JTWC Hawaii, NHC Miami, CPHC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10
minutes (JMA Japan, Southern Hemisphere RSMCs and TCWCs)
Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres.
1.2 Tropical cyclones still active at the end of the month
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2. FORECAST ERROR STATISTICS
The Met Office global Numerical Weather Prediction model produces a 6-day forecast every 12 hours. The performance of the model in forecasting this month's tropical cyclones is assessed below. Mean error statistics for each storm that ended during the month are presented together with a final table of statistics for all storms ending this month. Verification is performed at 24 hour intervals up to forecast time T+120. Some mean error statistics for last year's storms are included for the purposes of a comparison. The present global model has a resolution of 0.83°x 0.55°x 38 levels. This is equivalent to a horizontal resolution of 93km x 62km at the equator.
Click here for details of the TC verification technique and an explanation of error statistics and their sign conventions.
2.1 Individual Tropical Cyclone Summaries
Name: DARIUS Identifier: 06S
Basin: SOUTH-WEST INDIAN
Start date: 29.12.2003 End date: 04.01.2004
1-minute MSW: 65 knots 10-minute MSW: 55 knots
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Best track DPE for all storms in the 2002-3 season in the SWI basin
A plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts.
Forecast errors were below last season's average up to T+72 and there was skill over CLIPER. However, longer range forecasts had a large slow bias.
Name: HETA Identifier: 07P
Basin: AUSTRALIAN (S Pacific)
Start date: 01.01.2004 End date: 08.01.2004
1-minute MSW: 140 knots 10-minute MSW: 115 knots
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Best track DPE for all storms in the 2002-3 season in the AUS basin
A plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts.
Forecast errors were near to or above last season's average up to T+96, but lower than the average at T+120. There was a slow bias at longer forecast ranges. No skill statistics are available in this region.
Name: KEN Identifier: 08S
Basin: AUSTRALIAN (SE Indian)
Start date: 01.01.2004 End date: 06.01.2004
1-minute MSW: 35 knots 10-minute MSW: 40 knots
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Best track DPE for all storms in the 2002-3 season in the AUS basin
A plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts.
Ken was a weak system which persisted for several days as a tropical depression, but only briefly reached tropical storm status. No forecasts were verified.
2.2 Summary of all Tropical Cyclones
Mean error statistics for all tropical cyclones (of at least tropical storm strength) which have ended this month are shown below.
Total number of depressions ending this month:- 3
Number of storms used in statistics below:- 3
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* Best track DPE for all Southern Hemisphere storms in 2002-3 season
Forecast errors were near to last season's average for this months storms. There was a slow bias at longer forecast ranges. The model showed good skill over CLIPER and the overall intensity tendency skill was a high 31%.
