1. Tropical cyclone activity
1.1 Tropical cyclones ending during the month
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Basin name abbreviations:
NWP : North-West Pacific (west of 180°E)
NEP : North-East Pacific (east of 180°E)
NAT : North Atlantic
NI : North Indian (west of Malay Peninsula)
SWI : South-West Indian (west of 90°E)
AUS : Australian (east of 90°E)
1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1
minute (JTWC Hawaii, NHC Miami, CPHC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10
minutes (JMA Japan, Southern Hemisphere RSMCs and TCWCs)
Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than
10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are
obtained from different warning centres.
1.2 Tropical cyclones still active at the end of the month
None
2. FORECAST ERROR STATISTICS
The Met Office global Numerical Weather Prediction model produces a 6-day forecast every 12 hours. The performance of the model in forecasting this month's tropical cyclones is assessed below. Mean error statistics for each storm that ended during the month are presented together with a final table of statistics for all storms ending this month. Verification is performed at 24 hour intervals up to forecast time T+120. Some mean error statistics for last year's storms are included for the purposes of a comparison. The present global model has a resolution of 0.5625°x 0.375°x 50 levels. This is equivalent to a horizontal resolution of 62km x 42km at the equator.
2.1 Individual Tropical Cyclone Summaries
Name: CHANCHU Identifier: 02W
Basin: NORTH-WEST PACIFIC
Start date: 08.05.2006 End date: 18.05.2006
1-minute MSW: 135 knots 10-minute MSW: 90 knots
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* DPE for all storms in the 2005 season in the NWP basin
A plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts.
Track forecast errors were well below last season's average for this first significant storm of the season in this region. The track across the Philippines and the turn northwards were well predicted. The eastward deflection away from Hong Kong was also well handled. Skill scores against CLIPER were high.
Name: ALETTA Identifier: 01E
Basin: NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
Start date: 27.05.2006 End date: 30.05.2006
1-minute MSW: 40 knots 10-minute MSW: - knots
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* DPE for all storms in the 2005 season in the NEP basin
A plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts.
Aletta was a short-lived storm. Errors for the few forecasts verified were low.
2.2 Summary of all Tropical Cyclones
Mean error statistics for all tropical cyclones (of at least tropical
storm strength) which have ended this month are shown below.
Total number of depressions ending this month: 2
Number of storms used in statistics below: 2
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* DPE for all Northern Hemisphere storms in 2005 season
Comments:
There were just two storms this month; the figures are dominated by
those for Typhoon Chanchu. Track errors were low and skill scores high.
The overall intensity tendency skill score was 8%.
