Tropical cyclone activity
| Tropical cyclones ending during the month | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NWP | NEP | NAT | NI | SWI | AUS | Total | |
| Total number ending during the month | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| Tropical cyclones active during the month | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Identifier | Basin | Start date | End date | 1-minute MSW | 10-minute MSW |
| Toraji | 03W | NWP | 04 July | 05 July | 35 | 35 |
| Man-yi | 04W | NWP | 07 July | 16 July | 135 | 95 |
| - | 04E | NEP | 09 July | 11 July | 30 | - |
| - | 05E | NEP | 14 July | 16 July | 30 | - |
| Cosme | 06E | NEP | 14 July | 23 July | 65 | - |
| Dalila | 07E | NEP | 22 July | 27 July | 50 | - |
| - | 01S | AUS | 29 July | 30 July | 35 | 30 |
Basin name abbreviations:
NWP : North-west Pacific (west of 180° E)
NEP : North-east Pacific (east of 180° E)
NAT : North Atlantic
NI : North Indian (west of Malay Peninsula)
SWI: South-west Indian (west of 90° E)
AUS: Australian (east of 90° E)
1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1
minute (JTWC Hawaii, NHC Miami, CPHC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10
minutes (JMA Japan, Southern Hemisphere RSMCs and TCWCs)
Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than
10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are
obtained from different warning centres.
Tropical cyclones still active at the end of the month
| Tropical cyclones still active at the end of the month | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Identifier | Basin | Start date |
| Usagi | 05W | NWP | 28 July |
| Chantal | 03L | NAT | 31 July |
| Erick | 08E | NEP | 31 July |
Forecast error statistics
The Met Office global Numerical Weather Prediction model produces a 6-day forecast every 12 hours. The performance of the model in forecasting this month's tropical cyclones is assessed below. Mean error statistics for each storm that ended during the month are presented together with a final table of statistics for all storms ending this month. Verification is performed at 24 hour intervals up to forecast time T+120. Some mean error statistics for last year's storms are included for the purposes of a comparison. The present global model has a resolution of 0.5625°x 0.375°x 50 levels. This is equivalent to a horizontal resolution of 62km x 42km at the equator.
Individual tropical cyclone summaries
Name: TORAJI Identifier: 03W
Basin: NORTH-WEST PACIFIC
Start date: 04.07.2007 End
date: 05.07.2007
1-minute MSW: 35 knots
10-minute MSW: 35 knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DX | -38 | 135 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DY | 18 | 11 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean AT | 17 | -81 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean CT | -51 | 103 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Track skill (%) | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 72 | 132 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| 2006 DPE * | 60 | 114 | 204 | 304 | 422 | 551 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | -100 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006 season in the NWP basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
Toraji was a short-lived storm and just one forecast was verified.
Name: MAN-YI Identifier: 04W
Basin: NORTH-WEST PACIFIC
Start date: 07.07.2007 End date: 16.07.2007
1-minute MSW: 135 knots 10-minute MSW: 95 knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 18 | 16 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 8 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Mean DX | 15 | -19 | -70 | -257 | -338 | -605 |
| Mean DY | 10 | -12 | -75 | -216 | -258 | -350 |
| Mean AT | 13 | -38 | -124 | -384 | -454 | -719 |
| Mean CT | 8 | -64 | -172 | -166 | -181 | -121 |
| Track skill (%) | **** | 34 | 38 | 32 | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 64 | 158 | 279 | 450 | 541 | 753 |
| 2006 DPE * | 60 | 114 | 204 | 304 | 422 | 551 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 50 | 14 | 17 | -20 | 25 |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006 season in the NWP basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
There was a left-of-track and slow bias in forecasts resulting in track errors above last season’s average. However, skill scores against CLIPER were good.
Name: - Identifier: 04E
Basin: NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
Start date: 09.07.2007 End date: 11.07.2007
1-minute MSW: 30 knots 10-minute MSW: -
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
There are no verification statistics or forecast plot for this tropical cyclone since its 1-minute averaged winds did not reach tropical storm strength.
Name: - Identifier: 05E
Basin: NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
Start date: 14.07.2007 End date: 16.07.2007
1-minute MSW: 30 knots 10-minute MSW: -
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
There are no verification statistics or forecast plot for this tropical cyclone since its 1-minute averaged winds did not reach tropical storm strength.
Name: COSME Identifier: 06E
Basin: NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
Start date: 14.07.2007 End date: 23.07.2007
1-minute MSW: 45 knots 10-minute MSW: -
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DX | 42 | 9 | 161 | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DY | 6 | 42 | 56 | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean AT | -33 | -14 | -153 | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean CT | 15 | 53 | 56 | **** | **** | **** |
| Track skill (%) | **** | -3 | 0 | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 44 | 111 | 237 | **** | **** | **** |
| 2006 DPE * | 51 | 103 | 185 | 265 | 366 | 430 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 50 | 100 | **** | **** | **** |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006 season in the NEP basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
Cosme was above tropical storm strength for a couple of days and track forecast errors were a little higher than last season’s average.
Name: DALILA Identifier: 07E
Basin: NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
Start date: 22.07.2007 End date: 27.07.2007
1-minute MSW: 50 knots 10-minute MSW: -
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | **** | **** |
| Mean DX | 17 | -42 | -89 | -37 | **** | **** |
| Mean DY | -33 | -4 | -106 | -161 | **** | **** |
| Mean AT | -39 | 19 | -24 | -82 | **** | **** |
| Mean CT | 6 | -46 | -135 | -168 | **** | **** |
| Track skill (%) | **** | 40 | 55 | 33 | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 66 | 120 | 152 | 197 | **** | **** |
| 2006 DPE * | 51 | 103 | 185 | 265 | 366 | 430 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 0 | 50 | 100 | **** | **** |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006 season in the NEP basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
There was a slight left-of-track bias in forecasts, although track forecast errors were below last season's average at T+48 and T+72 and skill scores against CLIPER were high.
Name: - Identifier: 01S
Basin: AUSTRALIAN (SE Indian)
Start date: 29.07.2007 End
date: 30.07.2007
1-minute MSW: 35 knots 10-minute MSW: 30
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
There are no verification statistics or forecast plot for this tropical cyclone since its 10-minute averaged winds did not reach tropical storm strength.
Summary of all tropical cyclones
Mean error statistics for all tropical cyclones (of at least tropical storm strength) which have ended this month are shown below.
Total number of depressions ending this month: 7
Number of storms used in statistics below: 4
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 35 | 27 | 20 | 14 | 10 | 8 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Mean DX | 15 | -14 | -51 | -226 | -338 | -605 |
| Mean DY | 0 | -1 | -68 | -208 | -258 | -350 |
| Mean AT | -7 | -23 | -107 | -341 | -454 | -719 |
| Mean CT | 5 | -37 | -142 | -167 | -181 | -121 |
| Track skill (%) | **** | 32 | 38 | 32 | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 63 | 142 | 250 | 414 | 541 | 753 |
| 2006 DPE * | 57 | 112 | 203 | 303 | 422 | 537 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 33 | 30 | 29 | -20 | 25 |
* DPE for all northern hemisphere storms in 2006 season
Track forecast errors were above last season’s average for this month's storms. There was a left-of-track and slow bias, but skill scores against CLIPER were good. The overall intensity tendency skill score was 24%.
